How is the reliability index linked to the probability of failure?

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  in short
The reliability index is directly linked to the probability of failure through the negative of the inverse CDF of the standard Normal distribution.
  prerequisite knowledge

The probability of failure $p_f$ is a measure for the degree of safety (i.e., the reliability) of the investigated structure. The smaller the probability of failure, the larger the reliability. The probability of failure $p_f$ usually ranges from $10^{−1}$ to $10^{−7}$ [Kiureghian, 1989]. An often more convenient measure to express the reliability of the investigated structure is provided by the reliability index, which increases with increasing reliability. The generalized reliability index $\beta$ is defined as [Ditlevsen, 1979; Ditlevsen and Madsen, 2007, Chapter 6]:
$$
\beta = −\Phi^{-1}\left(p_f\right)\;,
$$ where $\Phi^{-1}(\cdot)$ is the inverse of the CDF of the standard Normal distribution. The reliability index $\beta$ increases with decreasing probability of failure; i.e., the larger $\beta$ the larger the reliability of the investigated structure. For $p_f = 10^{−1}$, the reliability index is approximately $1$, and for $p_f = 10^{−7}$, the reliability index is approximately $5$. The relation between the reliability index $\beta$ and the probability of failure $p_f$ is illustrated in the figure below.

Relation between the reliability index and the probability of failure.

 

Note that the above definition of the generalized reliability index differs from the FORM reliability index $\beta_\mathrm{FORM}$, which (i) measures the distance of the design point from the origin in standard Normal space and (ii) is the reliability index associated with the linearized limit-state function at the design point.

References

[Kiureghian, 1989] Kiureghian, A. D.: Measures of structural safety under imperfect states of knowledge. Journal
of Structural Engineering
, 115(5):1119–1140, 1989.

[Ditlevsen, 1979] Ditlevsen, O.: Generalized second moment reliability index. Journal of Structural Mechanics,
7(4):435–451, 1979.

[Ditlevsen and Madsen, 2007] Ditlevsen, O. and Madsen, H. O.: Structural reliability methods. Technical University of
Denmark, 2007.

 

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