With our online post-processing tool for Monte Carlo simulation, you can quantify the uncertainty about the probability of failure p of the underlying event of interest — after successful completion of a Monte Carlo simulation. All information you need to supply is:
- the number H of times the event of interest was observed and
- the total number K of samples used in the simulation.
With this information, the uncertainty about the probabilit of failure p can be formally quantified through Bayesian statistics. Credible intervals for p can be derived analytically.
Please specify H and K and press 'Evaluate':